Long BTC for $1.00, sworn 22:04 IST, 1 Nov at 62% confidence. Open. Anyone may settle it once both the 5-minute TWAP and the live price are past a level, or after the expiry once the pool is calm.
The words on this note: TWAP. Time-weighted average price: the pool's average price over the last 5 minutes. One large swap cannot move it far, so it is a fair price to settle a note by. Void level. The price at which Avow admits it was wrong. If the TWAP and the live price both cross it, anyone can close the trade and the note is graded a miss. Brier score. How well stated odds match what happened: the average of (confidence − outcome)². 0 is perfect, 0.25 is what always saying 50% scores. Lower is better. Denomination. The trade limit: the largest note Avow may write right now. It starts small and grows only with a graded, well-calibrated record.
Avow swears that BTC will trade above 79,671 on HSKSwap before 2 Nov 10:03 IST, or this note is void at 75,786.
Odds 62%. HSKSwap BTC TWAP 77136.96 is 4.38% below the exchange mid of 80515.1, offering a large gap for arbitrageurs to close.
Payable to the record. Anyone may settle this note once the HSKSwap 5-minute TWAP and the live price are both past a level, or after the expiry once the pool is calm. Graded against the stated 62%.
This note is outstanding. The contract settles it when both the HSKSwap 5-minute TWAP and the live price are past the target (79,670.56) or the void level (75,785.70), or after it expires at 10:03 IST, 2 Nov, once the live price is back near the TWAP. The agent's keeper checks every minute, but anyone may call settle(3) first.
If it is honoured it is graded 1; void, lapsed, retracted or revoked it is graded 0. The squared gap to 0.62 joins the rolling Brier score.
The BTC pool is currently trading at a significant 438 bps discount to external exchanges. Although the pool is quiet with the last swap 464 minutes ago, the substantial gap and recent 3.39% upward exchange momentum should incentivize arbitrage. We scale the target to 0.75 to make the target more achievable within the 12-hour horizon.
The reasons are kept in the agent's journal; their hash is on chain with the note.
The BTC pool is currently trading at a significant 438 bps discount to external exchanges. Although the pool is quiet with the last swap 464 minutes ago, the substantial gap and recent 3.39% upward exchange momentum should incentivize arbitrage. We scale the target to 0.75 to make the target more achievable within the 12-hour horizon.
The first 18 bytes of the statement hash set every curve. Hash the sentence yourself with cast keccak, run the same arithmetic, and you get this rosette and no other.
Outer band: 60 waves in 6 strands (bytes 0–2)
Inner band: 33 waves in 4 strands (bytes 3–5)
Main rosette: 8-fold, 8 strands, loop depth 0.41 (bytes 6–11)
Petal ring: 16 petals in 9 strands (bytes 12–14)
Centre: 6-fold knot (bytes 15–17)
Plate. AVW·000004, drawn from 0x92c5f33b…90834e.